#prediction markets

On a Tuesday night in Spain, Álvaro Arbeloa took his first steps as a head...

The number blinked on my screen at 06:14 Bogotá time: 72.5% YES. A single...

A single number floats above Polymarket: 47.5%. That is the probability that...

Hook A single drone strike on a Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region. A...

Hook Prediction markets priced the Clarity Act’s passage at 45.5% the moment...

The code is silent, but the ledger screams—this time from Tehran. On December...

Hook The US strikes Iran. Oil ticks up—barely. A modest 2.3% bump, the kind...

Brent crude just breached $100 a barrel, and the headlines are screaming...

Due diligence is just paranoia with a spreadsheet. On May 2025, Iran activate...

I don't care if Morgan Rogers is actually worth the rumored £40 million. The...

I remember the weight of the 2017 whitepaper in my hands. It was 40 pages of...

Hook Two point five billion dollars in USDC lands on Solana. The community...

The dollar's share of oil trade settlements has declined sharply over the pas...

The 2026 World Cup final was not just a battle on the pitch; it was a stress...

The silence came first—the hollow quiet between a flight path and impact. The...

Chaos is opportunity. Compile the data. The market is pricing a 30.5%...

Prediction markets price a 30.5% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal by 2026. Th...

The probability of a comprehensive US-Iran nuclear deal by August 2026 sits a...

On June 11, 2024, Polymarket’s contract for the South Carolina Republican...

Listen. A number has been floating around the crypto echo chamber: only 54...

The block confirms what the eyes missed. On a quiet Tuesday, Hyperliquid's...

The data is cold. Unforgiving. On Polymarket, the contract “Strait of Hormuz...

When Diplomacy Meets Prediction Markets: Decoding the 0.4% Signal Finding...

Three hours after the Kalshi PR head’s statement landed, the silence from...

Hype cycles are clean. They come with whitepapers, roadmaps, and a hundred...

The fog of war settles over the Middle East again. Iraq-based militia, Islami...

Ledger doesn’t lie. At 22:14 UTC on May 20, 2024, a single block on Ethereum...

The signal arrived not through a diplomatic cable, a NSA intercept, or a...

Data checked. Community warned. A rumor broke on June 9: Donald Trump plannin...

The Polymarket contract reads "Will China invade Taiwan before 2027?" Current...

Over the past year, trading volume for tokenized stocks on Ethereum L2s surge...

The final whistle hits. Spain 2, France 1. For the 12 million users who place...

The numbers say one thing. The crowd says another. History proves the crowd i...

At 22:00 UTC on December 14, 2022, a single transaction on the Ethereum netwo...

On the night of the quarterfinal between Norway and England, the on-chain dat...

The data shows a 1,200% surge in on-chain activity for a newly minted token...

Zero trust is not a policy; it is a geometry. And the geometry of centralized...

The Korean Communications Commission just fired a warning shot across...

The ledger does not lie, only the noise obscures. On Predict.fun, a...

Spotify demanded Kalshi and Polymarket remove its logo. The trigger: a...

Data verified. Trust broken. Spotify has issued a direct demand to Kalshi and...

ESMA just dropped a regulatory nuke. The European Securities and Markets...

The consensus is convenient: prediction markets are just digital betting pool...

Hook Bilibili Gaming remains undefeated in international competition. The...

The Dallas fan zone erupted. Not in cheers, but in chaos. A scuffle between t...

In the halls of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a quiet war is bein...

Hook Over the past 72 hours, a single dataset from Allium quietly rippled...